Ministers meet in Copenhagen to keep the world on course for collective and ambitious climate action

Ministers and representatives from almost forty countries, representing major economies and emitters and negotiating groups, and UN agencies and multilateral development banks such as the World Bank are meeting in Copenhagen over the next two days to discuss key issues and deliverables at the UN-sponsored climate talks in Belem, Brazil (COP30) in November this year.

Now in its fourth year, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial is an informal ministerial meeting that provides a platform outside the formal negotiating space of the UNFCCC for countries to discuss challenges, concerns and possibilities for collective efforts to accelerate climate action.

The meeting, co-chaired by Denmark, COP29 Presidency Azerbaijan and Brazil as the incoming presidency COP30, is being held at a time of geopolitical uncertainties and strife, tariff driven disruptions in trade and concerns about intensifying trade wars, increased focus on addressing competitiveness. The meeting is another opportunity to keep up global resolve to work collectively and collaboratively to tackle climate change and its impacts in the aftermath of the US withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and the Trump administration’s disruptions to the multilateral global order. “Global climate action and unity are more critical now than ever. As some countries regrettably retreat, we must remain steadfast and push ahead to secure a sustainable future,” said Lars Aagaard, Denmark’s Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities, who will be co-chairing the two-day ministerial.

Stressing on the importance of the ministerial, Brazilian diplomat and COP30 President-designate André Corrêa do Lago, who will co-chair the meeting, said that the forum was “extremely relevant” to advance the climate agenda and reaffirm the importance of dialogue and collaboration in the fight against climate change. Looking ahead at the UN-climate meet in Belem, do Lago said that “this sense of partnership will be crucial to achieve successful outcomes at COP30. We must unite in a mutirão to explore all possible paths to overcome the many challenges we know we have to face.”

Two key determinants of climate action—climate targets or nationally determined contributions or NDC and finance or the road map for mobilizing $1.3 trillion a year by 2035—are not part of the COP30 negotiating agenda.

Countries are required to submit their national climate targets for 2035 in September, ahead of the November climate meet in Belem. These nationally determined targets are critical in assessing global progress on meeting the long-term goals set out in the Paris Agreement. Following the conclusion of the first global stocktake at COP28 in Dubai, countries reiterated their commitment to “strive” to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Till now some 20 countries have submitted their 2035 NDCs. Ensuring that all countries, particularly major emitters and economies, submit robust and ambitious climate targets for 2035 is critical to the global effort to tackle climate change and its impact.

Major emitters like the EU, India, China, Canada, Australia, Japan are yet to submit their NDCs. However, positive indications by China are expected to add to the push for greater ambition on climate action during the discussions in Copenhagen. At the close-door leaders meeting chaired by UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres and Brazil’s President Lula last month, President Xi Jinping committed that China's new goals for 235 will be “covering the entire scope of the economy, including all greenhouse gases”.

Finance, critical for ensuring that developing countries are able to undertake ambitious climate action, has been slated for discussion. The focus is on mobilizing finance to the tune of $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 for developing countries and on aligning all financial flows to the long-term goals of the Paris Agreement. Azerbaijan and Brazil are tasked with presenting a roadmap to $1.3 trillion at Belem. While not on the negotiating agenda, the availability and access to finance for developing countries is critical to ensure the world is on track to limit global temperature rise to 1.5C.

Discussions will seek to address the concerns and disappointment expressed by many developing countries on the new target of $300 billion a year by 2035 to help developing countries take climate action agreed to in Baku last November. Though the new climate finance target represents a three-fold increase over the previous target of $100 billion, a key cause of concern for developing countries is that the bulk of financial flows are to developed countries and China, with the rest of the world only receiving 15 per cent of climate-related investments. This severely hampers the ability of developing countries, including emerging economies, to undertake ambitious climate action. Concerns that have been exacerbated by the Trump administration’s termination of climate related assistance and programmes by the United States and reduction in overseas development assistance of key developed countries including the UK, France, Germany, Switzerland, Sweden, The Netherlands. The low-key focus on climate at the recently concluded Spring Meetings of the World Bank and the IMF will further exacerbate concerns.

Speaking at an event organized on Tuesday by CONCITO, DanChurchAid & NDC Partnership on the sidelines of the Copenhagen ministerial, Alison Campbell, who was the UK’s head of delegation at Baku and currently director of the UNSG’s Climate Action Team highlighted the need to shift the flow of climate finance and investment to developing countries. “We know that 60 per cent of the investment opportunities in the energy transition are in developing countries, but currently only about 15 per cent of the investment goes to developing countries. We really need to find a way to shift that, to unlock that potential, and to find the tools and to show the commitment to doing that over the next few years,” said Campbell.

With the rising impacts of climate change, adaptation is key issue for the Belem meeting. Countries are expected to submit their National Adaptation Plans (NAPs) ahead of COP30. At Copenhagen, ministers will discuss issues related to adaptation and resilience, particularly the global goal on adaptation and adaptation finance.

"I hope the ministers will discuss how the world’s nations can increase their focus on adaptation, loss and damage, and the climate disasters that threaten both growth and development. The faster we adapt to climate change, the lower the final cost. That realization is very straightforward and creates a momentum that can revive the climate fight,” said Jonas Nøddekær, Secretary General of DanChurchAid.

This year’s ministerial has an added significance for Denmark, which will be taking over the rotating EU Presidency in July. The ministerial will give Denmark that added insight into the thinking and concerns of key countries and negotiating groups as it formulates its approach and engagements in the run-up to COP30 and at Belem. “With Denmark preparing to take on the EU Presidency, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial is a strategic moment for the EU to step up and show confident, forward-looking leadership. Copenhagen is not just another stop on the road to COP30—it is a key milestone to demonstrate that multilateral climate action is alive and delivering,” said Angeline Sanzay, Senior Policy Advisor, E3G, a London-based international think tank.